China has sharply criticized President Donald Trump’s escalating military pressure on Venezuela, calling recent U.S. tanker interceptions illegal and destabilizing. Yet beneath the condemnation, Beijing may also see an opening — one that reinforces its long-running argument that Washington is an unreliable and aggressive global power.
At the center of the dispute is Trump’s declaration of a “total and complete blockade” of sanctioned vessels operating around Venezuela. The move has already disrupted oil shipments tied to China, which in recent months has absorbed an estimated 80% of Venezuela’s crude exports. For Beijing, that makes the blockade both a political affront and a direct economic threat.
Chinese officials last week accused the United States of “seriously violating international law” and pledged support for Caracas against what they described as unilateral bullying. The comments came during a call between senior diplomats from both countries, underscoring how closely China is watching Washington’s moves in Latin America.
A revival of gunboat diplomacy
While Beijing is publicly pushing back, analysts say it is also quietly leveraging the moment. Trump’s actions fit neatly into China’s broader narrative that the United States relies on military coercion rather than diplomacy — a charge Beijing often faces itself over the South China Sea and Taiwan.
The timing matters. Earlier this month, the White House released a new national security strategy that updates the Monroe Doctrine for the Trump era. Once aimed at keeping European powers out of the Western Hemisphere, the doctrine has been reimagined as a pledge to keep the Americas “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets.”
In China’s policy circles, the document has sparked intense debate. Some analysts see it as evidence that Washington is narrowing its focus to its own backyard, potentially leaving more room for China to expand its influence in Asia and beyond. Others argue it signals a more confrontational U.S. posture toward any rival presence near American shores.
Beijing pushes back in the Americas
China has not waited to see how the strategy plays out. Days after the U.S. document was released, Beijing published its first new policy paper on Latin America and the Caribbean in nearly a decade. The paper outlined plans to deepen cooperation across dozens of areas, from infrastructure and energy to law enforcement and aerospace.
The message was clear: China has no intention of retreating from a region where it has poured billions of dollars into loans and projects, with Venezuela among its closest partners. State media quickly echoed that stance, with the Global Times accusing the United States of placing itself “in opposition to global moral standards” through its actions against Caracas.
More blunt warnings also surfaced. Analysts writing in Chinese domestic outlets cautioned that further escalation — particularly a large-scale U.S. military intervention — could trigger a prolonged and costly conflict, likened by one researcher to a “second Vietnam War.”
Oil, influence, and great-power rivalry
China’s concern is not theoretical. Venezuelan crude made up about 5% of China’s total oil imports last month, according to shipping data, and at least one intercepted tanker was linked to a Hong Kong-registered company. Any sustained disruption could force Beijing to scramble for alternative supplies.
Still, few expect China to go beyond diplomatic pressure. Beijing is unlikely to deploy military force to defend Venezuela or directly challenge the U.S. Navy in the Caribbean. Instead, it appears focused on the bigger picture — what Trump’s regional assertiveness means for the global balance of power.
Some Chinese scholars interpret the renewed Monroe Doctrine as a sign of a world drifting toward clearly defined “spheres of influence,” dominated by the United States, China, and Russia. Under that logic, Washington might tolerate greater Chinese dominance in East Asia while tightening its grip on the Americas.
Others caution that such a reading is overly optimistic. They argue the U.S. focus on its hemisphere may be temporary, and that competition with China — particularly over Taiwan — remains a core priority for Washington.
A narrative battle as much as a military one
For now, Trump’s Venezuela blockade offers Beijing a useful talking point. By highlighting U.S. gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, China can deflect criticism of its own actions closer to home and portray Washington as a power clinging to 19th-century doctrines.
Whether that narrative gains traction globally remains to be seen. But as Trump tightens pressure on Venezuela and revives old ideas of hemispheric dominance, China is making sure the world is watching — and listening — to its version of the story.
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